Buoyed by an above-normal monsoon forecast, the Centre has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the crop year 2025-26. 

This is 3.8% or 13 million tonnes more than the 341.55 mt foodgrain target in 2024-25 and, if achieved, will be good news for India’s agrarian economy, rural demand and food inflation. With the production increase expected in rice, wheat, maize and other cereals, it will also help the government to ease its ban on exports that, in turn, will benefit farmers, traders and exporters.

“We plan to achieve record foodgrain production through introduction of high yielding varieties, climate resilient seeds, crop diversification, increased area and through intervention of better technology and agricultural practices,” said Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union minister of agriculture and farmers welfare and rural development, while addressing media at Indian Agricultural Research Institute (ICAR-IARI), New Delhi, on the sidelines of the national conference on agriculture for kharif campaign 2025.

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Rice production is projected at a record 147.35 million tonnes in 2025-26, compared with 136.30 mt in 2024-25. Sowing is expected to start this month. Wheat is projected at a record 117.40 mt as compared with 115 mt in 2024-25 and maize at 42.68 mt, compared with 40 mt in 2024-25.

However, the target for pulses is lower than the target in 2024-25—projected at 26.47 mt in 2025-26 compared with 29.90 mt in the 2024-25 target. This is mainly due to lower production than the target in 2024-25. The actual production was 23.02 mt.

Similarly, the target for oilseeds is more or less the same as the 2024-25 target at 44.75 mt.

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“While the supply is expected to improve on year, we are also expecting demand sentiments to be better with pick up in rice exports,” said Pushan Sharma, director-research, Crisil Intelligence.

However, Pushan said given that the mandi prices for wheat are trading higher than the minimum support price, the government may find it challenging to procure wheat from farmers. Hence, export restrictions on wheat may continue.

Mint reported on 2 May that that the Union government will consider resuming exports of wheat products such as flour, semolina and wheat flour (atta) as the country is estimated to see a record wheat production of 115.43 million tonnes this year. 

The proposal may be taken up at an upcoming inter-ministerial meeting that will have representatives from the ministries of commerce, cooperation, consumer affairs and food, agriculture, and food processing, said people on the condition of anonymity.

The government had restricted these exports in August 2022, following a decline in wheat production. These products have a strong consumer base in countries with a large Indian diaspora, including the US, the UK, the Gulf nations and parts of Africa and Southeast Asia.

Given forecasts of the south west monsoon hitting 105% of the long period average, the conditions look good for the upcoming kharif and rabi seasons.

However, two things need further monitoring. The India Meteorological Department sees over a 50% probability associated with monsoon being above 105%, with 26% probability of it being above 110%. If the latter materializes, it could be detrimental for the crop yield, according to Crisil Intelligence.

Additionally, the spatial and temporal distribution of southwest monsoon will bear watching

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The monsoon season is crucial for India as it delivers nearly 70% of its annual rainfall. Nearly half of India’s arable land doesn’t have access to irrigation and depends on these rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybean.

According to Indian Meteorology Department(IMD), India will likely receive above-normal monsoon rainfall this year, signalling relief across sectors, especially in agriculture. “India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106% of LPA (87 cm),” Mrutyunjay Mahapatra, India Meteorological Department director general, said earlier.